The highlight of last week is the US elections results and a warm congratulations to President Barack Obama on a second term. What do the stats tell us about the next party to win the elections?
In this blog, we examine the likelihood of US presidents to serve a second term by analysing all the elections since independence.
If we examine results since the 1829, and with the exception of the Whig party (which had 2 presidents serving a total of 4 years in 1849), the Republicans governed for 89 years and the Democrats for 84 years. This takes them to 89 years both is we add Obama’s new four years.
Since independents, Republicans governed 40% of the time and the Democrats 37% (40% at the end of Obama’s new tenure).
All presidents have been elected to a second term since Jimmy Carter (1980). Party fatigue appears to have played a role with each party governing 8 years at a time since the 80s.
The US had 43 presidents. Franklin Roosevelt governed for 12 years, 14 presidents governed for 8 years, and the remainder for 4 and less.
Great news for Obama but is statistics is anything to go by, the a Republican president will be in office in four year’s time.